2022: Recovery or Resurgence?

The Covid-19 pandemic officially marks a grim second year this year. Nonetheless, there is some optimism among scientists that while the virus will become endemic, its threat to human life could reduce over time.

In the first of a three-part Spirethoughts instalment examining analysts’ predictions for the new year ahead, we look at 3 economic and social trends that are likely to affect the global economy in 2022.

Debt and inflation to grow. Global debt accelerated during the pandemic as governments continued to borrow. Twenty-five nations, including the US and China, now have total debt amounting to more than 300% of GDP, as central banks contribute to inflation by printing money, deepening the debt trap. Inflation, while on the rise, seems unlikely to hit the historic double-digit levels of the 1970s, as government spending should ease in 2022.

Industries overheat amid global warming “greenflation”. The other continuing story with global impact will be the ever-increasing impact of global warming. Commodities needed for the generation of renewable energy - tin, aluminium, copper, nickel cobalt, etc - look likely to become more expensive. This has the short-term potential to derail or delay green energy projects, in a market valued at over US$881 billion in 2020 and expected to be worth nearly $2 trillion by 2030.

Ageing population could drag economies down, too. The world’s population was projected to stand at 7.8 billion as of New Year’s Day. But for many advanced economies, such as the US and China, population growth actually slowed to grow by just 0.1%, and that number factors in net migration. The implication for these economies could be staggering, as ageing populations draw on national finances funded by dwindling pools of labour. This could trigger declines of the sort seen in Japan since 2007 – unless countries can successfully raise retirement ages and successfully integrate older workers into the job market, which many countries struggle to do.

Will the expected global economic recovery be blunted by uncertainties amid the rise of new Covid-19 variants?

Comments

India ranks among the world’s top compact SUV markets!

India overtook Japan in 2017 as the third largest manufacturer of compact SUVs. Big players such as Renault, Mahindra & Mahindra, Ford Motor, Hyundai Motor, Maruti Suzuki and other SUV manufacturers sold 457,698 compact SUVs in 2017 – over four times the unit sales in 2015, at 107,634. While 2016 saw shrinking sales for this vehicle category in China and the USA, sales in India grew nearly 50% from 307,365 units in 2016. Will India overtake China as the world’s largest compact SUV market? For more information, click here.

Asian consumers embrace local brands

With growing regional integration and rising incomes, more Asian consumers are choosing Asian brands against foreign brands. Xiaomi, an Asian brand, outsold Apple in China in 2014 for the first time. Brunei based brand – Brunei Halal – recently opened stores in Malaysia targeting its Muslim population. The Indian government’s knowledge website initiative – known as Vikaspedia and offering content in 22 different local languages – is gaining ground. Taobao, Air Asia, Alipay, Huawei, Siam Cement, San Miguel, Tiger Beer and Indofood are other Asian brands that are on the march. They all hail from countries other than Japan, Korea and Taiwan, the traditional sources of Asian brands. Will more Asian brands take the leap to become global brands as the top Japanese and Korean brands have become? https://www.spireresearch.com/newsroom/spirethoughts/asian-consumers-embrace-local-brands/

Egyptian-Israeli gas deal to boost bilateral trade

A USD15 billion deal has been announced between Israel and Egypt to export natural gas. Israel’s Delek Group has signed an agreement to supply 64 billion cubic meters of gas in a span of ten years to Egypt’s Dolphinus Holdings. The deal is considered a milestone ever since the 1979 peace accord, bringing Egypt a step closer to becoming a regional energy hub. However, the transportation of natural gas from Israel to Egypt is a challenge given the security risks. Will the Egypt-Israel gas export deal usher in a relationship of bonhomie and economic co-operation? For more information, click here .

Spire joins AmCham Corporate Community Day for seventh consecutive year

Spire Singapore collaborated with the Singapore Children’s Society for the fourth consecutive year, in support of AmCham Singapore’s Corporate Community Day (CCD) 2014. This is the seventh year in which Spire has been participating in the CCD program, which aims to promote corporate volunteerism. Spire Singapore took beneficiaries of the Singapore Children’s Society to a pizza making session. The children were thrilled by their new-found ability to make their own edible creations. They enjoyed the morning while at the same time picking up a useful and confidence-building skill, not to mention many fun facts about the history of pizza. We were honored by the visit of Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy Blair Hall, who joined us with his wife Valerie. Valerie joined in the pizza making session. Blair and his team interacted with the beneficiaries as well as the staff and volunteers of Spire Singapore and the Singapore Children’s Society. The enthusiasm did not di...

Family cafés the answer to Finland’s aging society

Finland’s largest non-profit organization (NPO), Mannerheim League for Child Welfare (MLL) dedicated to child and family welfare, run Family café sessions for a nominal fee. Such cafés were established in Sweden in the 1970s and moved to Nordic countries in the early 2000’s. These cafes help combat loneliness and contribute towards the mental health of parents in Finland’s aging society with low fertility rates. Will family cafés promote mental health and family life in Finland’s rapidly aging society? Read more: https://www.spireresearch.com/newsroom/spirethoughts/family-cafes-the-answer-to-finlands-aging-society/

The Knowledge to Decide

Search This Blog