2022: Recovery or Resurgence?

The Covid-19 pandemic officially marks a grim second year this year. Nonetheless, there is some optimism among scientists that while the virus will become endemic, its threat to human life could reduce over time.

In the first of a three-part Spirethoughts instalment examining analysts’ predictions for the new year ahead, we look at 3 economic and social trends that are likely to affect the global economy in 2022.

Debt and inflation to grow. Global debt accelerated during the pandemic as governments continued to borrow. Twenty-five nations, including the US and China, now have total debt amounting to more than 300% of GDP, as central banks contribute to inflation by printing money, deepening the debt trap. Inflation, while on the rise, seems unlikely to hit the historic double-digit levels of the 1970s, as government spending should ease in 2022.

Industries overheat amid global warming “greenflation”. The other continuing story with global impact will be the ever-increasing impact of global warming. Commodities needed for the generation of renewable energy - tin, aluminium, copper, nickel cobalt, etc - look likely to become more expensive. This has the short-term potential to derail or delay green energy projects, in a market valued at over US$881 billion in 2020 and expected to be worth nearly $2 trillion by 2030.

Ageing population could drag economies down, too. The world’s population was projected to stand at 7.8 billion as of New Year’s Day. But for many advanced economies, such as the US and China, population growth actually slowed to grow by just 0.1%, and that number factors in net migration. The implication for these economies could be staggering, as ageing populations draw on national finances funded by dwindling pools of labour. This could trigger declines of the sort seen in Japan since 2007 – unless countries can successfully raise retirement ages and successfully integrate older workers into the job market, which many countries struggle to do.

Will the expected global economic recovery be blunted by uncertainties amid the rise of new Covid-19 variants?

Comments

Side Click: Are you under the surveillance camera?

Identifying VIPs with strong purchasing power is crucial to retail success. More often than not, retail staff fail to do this in time. Facial recognition technology can help prevent this. But does it put our privacy at risk? With high-spending customers making out-sized contributions to retail profitability, it is increasingly crucial for retailers to provide personalized customer service the minute a VIP customer sets foot in the store. For instance, Katie Holmes reportedly spent USD100,000 on a fashion makeover and USD14,200 on lingerie alone in 2012! This is where identification technology can play a role. NEC, a Japan-based ICT vendor, has developed an identification application based on a facial recognition system – comparing the individual’s facial features against its database, and sending prompts when a match is identified. The initial purpose of the application was to help identify terrorists and criminals , but it was subsequently adapted to the retail setting....

Congestion stops traffic in SEA’s megacities

44 million people are being added to Southeast Asia’s urban population each year. As motor vehicle populations keep doubling every 5 to 7 years, what measures are being taken to tackle traffic congestion? Japnit Singh, Senior Director, Singapore and India of Spire Research and Consulting shared his insights in China Daily – Asia Weekly. Southeast Asia’s middle-class continues to boom, fuelling car population increases despite the relative lack of infrastructure. According to the Asian Development Bank, the region’s major cities suffer from some of the highest air pollution levels globally – as much as 80 per cent being attributable to road transport. Singh cautioned that building roads is not a solution, as this region faces severe practical limitations and escalating costs due to shortage of land in urban areas. In Bangkok for example, roads have the capacity for two million motor vehicles whereas five million ply the city’s roads each day. This has led to the military g...

The Earthquake in Nepal jolts the economy

Nepal – one of the poorest countries in the world – had a rude awakening when a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck on 25 April 2015. The impact was tragic. Casualties continue to rise, with immense damage to infrastructure. Will the nation be able to pick up the shattered pieces of its economy? Leon Perera, Chief Executive Officer of Spire Research and Consulting shared his insights in China Daily – Asia Weekly. With the estimated cost of rehabilitation set to hit USD5 billion – a quarter of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD20 billion in 2014 – the economic impact of the earthquake is massive. According to United Nation’s data, 8 million people are directly in the line of fire. Both agriculture – with well over 70% of the population employed in this sector – and tourism have been badly afflicted. Perera opined that the disaster will also impact the nation’s ability to grow and transport fresh food – the agricultural sector alone accounts for 38% of GDP. Moreover, ...

India Is Well-Poised to Lead the Global API Industry

Despite the uncertain global economic climate, the growth momentum for generic drug spending will continue says Catherine Tang, Biomedical industry practice leader for the Spire Research and Consulting. Its share of total drug spending is set to increase. Demand growth, primarily from emerging markets, is being accelerated by healthcare reforms in the major developed markets of USA and Europe; as well as impending patent cliffs, where some USD 75 billion worth of drugs go off patent between 2012 and 2015. This presents new potential for manufacturers of API and drug intermediates (active pharmaceutical ingredients and excipient components used in generic formulations) in India. India is well-poised in the global API industry, but headwinds from higher export barriers and increased pharma co-vigilance are major threats that will inevitably raise production costs and erode margins. To retain its pole position in the competitive generic market and claim blue sky space, API ma...

Android market in India

- Saurabh Sharma, Country Manager, Spire Research and Consulting India can easily be considered as an Android country since 91% of its market share belongs to devices using Google’s mobile operating system. It is an open-source, Linux-based operating system designed specifically for smartphones and computer tablets. This facilitates easy accessibility for programmers to provide enhanced services as well as improve the core functionality of the device. According to statistics, the Android platform has breached 80% market share globally in the third quarter of 2013. With 40 million smartphones in the country, Indian users have an easy access to smartphones to stay connected online. With more consumers wanting to get their hands on smartphones and computer tablets, this has unsurprisingly pushed for the dominance of Androids across markets. Moreover, Androids is adopted by all major smartphone players in India – local players such as Karbonn and Micromax, as we...

The Knowledge to Decide

Search This Blog