Spire talks about political risks facing business in ASEAN

On 25th April, Spire, Yamada Consulting Group (YCG) and SPEEDA jointly organized a breakfast seminar in Singapore to share insights about the political risks that businesses face in ASEAN in a year of multiple elections. The panelists were Leon Perera, Chief Executive Officer of Spire Research and Consulting, MS. Khor YU Leng, Research Director, Southeast Asia Segi Enam Advisors Pte. Ltd and Mr. Takashi Kawabata, Lead Asia Economist, Uzabase Asia Pacific, Pte. Ltd.

The speakers discussed the political risks associated with the General elections in Singapore and the combined Presidential and Legislative elections in Indonesia, as well as Malaysia one year on following the dramatic election of 2018.

The General elections in Singapore will be held at the latest by March 2021. In a planned to step down, the Prime Minister would hand over the reins of power to a next generation Prime Minister, an event that in Singapore’s post-war history has happened only twice, once in 1991 and again in 2004. Broad continuity in policy is expected.

President Joko Widodo’s victory in the Indonesian elections would mean that industries such as ICT start-ups, ports and airports, road building, logistics and commodity-based manufacturing industries would see a positive growth outlook.

An important element in the national agenda is the “Making Indonesia 4.0” roadmap, led by the Industry Ministry. The tax holiday program would be expanded according to the Indonesian Ministry of Finance’s plan.

In Malaysia, companies are becoming nervous about policies towards the business sector, given the scaling back of several infrastructure projects and the down-cycle in business indicators. Going forward, politics looks set to be competitive.

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